New Zealanders have stopped waiting for the perfect interest rate. Three years of rate cuts, holds, and now a hike haven't stopped listings from climbing or prices from holding. If anything derails that, it won't be the Reserve Bank. It'll be an election campaign that needs a villain and finds one in housing.

This year, the Reserve Bank held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in February, held it again in April, then held it once more in May, this time on a 3-3 vote decided only by Governor Anna Breman's casting vote, before lifting the rate 25 basis points to 2.50% in July, the first rise in three years. Whatever you make of that path, it didn't stop the market moving.

Our latest Property Report shows the market has remained remarkably steady. Stock levels increased across almost every region, new listings reached their highest June level since 2020 (up 4.3% year-on-year to 7,942), and the national average asking price held at $866,314, continuing more than three years of price stability.

People continue to buy and sell for a wide range of reasons. Investors are reassessing their portfolios as softer rents, higher borrowing costs and modest capital growth make returns harder to achieve, while commercial property owners are facing similar challenges in a subdued economy. At the same time, REINZ data shows properties are still selling, with days to sell easing slightly and some regions, including Central Otago and the West Coast's Grey District, recording strong price growth.

The bigger challenge for the market may now be uncertainty rather than interest rates. Whether policies ultimately change or not, uncertainty alone can influence decision-making.

For buyers and sellers, the key message is to focus on the fundamentals rather than the headlines. The market has shown it can continue to function through changing interest rates, and many New Zealanders are making property decisions based on their own circumstances rather than trying to perfectly time the market.

This is an edited extract from Sarah Wood's opinion piece, originally published on The Post: thepost.co.nz/business/361048182/election-leave-housing-market-alone